Markets can be unpredictable and irrational, in case you haven’t noticed.  Sometimes they are driven by fundamentals, and sometimes by momentum stemming from fear or euphoria. In the late 90’s we witnessed a bubble based on speculation about the internet economy.  In 2008-09 we stared into the abyss and thought the end had arrived.  With the benefit of hindsight, the market overreaction seems clear.

If you want equity returns, you need to accept the irrational turns in the market.  In the long-term, meaning 5 years or more, fundamentals matter.  Any investment is worth the present value of the future cash flows.  The problem is, expectations of cash flows can change in a hurry, but time resolves most big questions.

Plan and set aside your cash needs for several years, and keep those funds in a safe place.  But don’t let fear keep you on the sidelines.  You could find yourself in a bear trap for a long time, waiting for the market to come back.

Chart source: Yahoo Finance, period July 2, 1990 to October 1, 2013. S&P 500 Index.  Investing involves risk of loss.  Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

It looks like Congress will kick the can again, raising the debt ceiling and keeping the Government open.  That’s nice, since the failing to pay U.S. creditors is the equivalent of Russian roulette.  The potential consequences of default are difficult to imagine.  But if I had to imagine a scenario that could compare to the mortgage crisis, with all the unforeseen and little understood interrelationships, a Treasury default would be a good place to start.  So, that’s the good news. It looks like the risk of imminent crisis is diminished.

But kicking the can is not solving the underlying problem.  We have to contain our spending problem.  There is a tipping point, when servicing the U.S. debt crowds out our ability to fund programs we are accustomed to.  If Congress doesn’t take the initiative, the markets will do it for us.

Eventually interest rates will go up, and the cost of servicing our debt will grow even if we don’t raise the debt ceiling.

Several market commentaries I regularly review have observed that this March is the “four-year anniversary of the current bull market.” The significance of measuring the length of a bull market is that since they all eventually end, it makes sense to try to anticipate the next downturn.

Is it any different when a market is recovering from a risk-averse, fear-driven, over-sold condition, than when it goes up because of irrational exuberance? Implicitly, there is a mean valuation. Does time spent below the mean count the same as time at or above the long-term trend? If GDP is barely growing, and valuations are simply normalizing to average levels, should this count against the duration of a bull market? Is it simply a reflection of the depth and severity of the last bear market?

I think these are issues to take into consideration when evaluating the duration of the current bull market. I think valuation and earnings expectations are more significant.

The opinions voiced in the material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

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As a professional investor, I am wary of the latest new investment fads.  Most investment companies now agree, interest rates are likely to go up, and that’s a big negative for bond investments.  Alternative investments are an increasingly popular investment option for investors seeking income and risk management in an environment where the risk associated with rising interest rates seems elevated with rates at historic lows.

Once the domain of private investment firms, Wall Street has jumped on the bandwagon with investments employing alternative strategies.  These investments employ strategies designed to reduce correlation with equity investments.

If an investment is not based on conventional fundamental valuation metrics, then what might the effect of increasing allocations to these alternative strategies be?  While I haven’t conducted, and can’t cite studies, I suspect this trend is exacerbating the erratic, if not inexplicable volatility in the stock market these days.

I’m advising long-term investors to hang on tight.  Aggressive investors might want to increase their tactical tilt.  On the other hand, conservative investors might want to lean toward safety to avoid liquidating investments on unfavorable terms.  The right balance is a function of valuation and liquidity needs.

Disclosure: Alternative investments may not be suitable for all investors and involve special risks such as leveraging the investment potential adverse market forces, regulatory changes and potentially illiquidity. The strategies employed in the management of alternative investments may accelerate the velocity of potential losses.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing.

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