Great Ideas, Bad Timing

The stock market is setting new highs, but fundamental economic data remains subpar. For the past several years, we have expected “next year” to finally break out to a GDP growth rate of at least 3%, representing an escape velocity to grow our way out of the credit crisis doldrums.

The zero interest rate policy sustains the slow growth scenario, but there is only so much Fed monetary policy can do. The fundamental problems are fiscal in nature, and until Washington decides business and rich people are not the cause of the problem, we’ll continue to trudge along. Policies to stimulate business and job creation would be a nice start. Can you name one pro-business policy? Requiring businesses to offer health-care helps some people with medical issues, but does it stimulate job creation? Raising the minimum wage has noble intent, but if you are running a business, you’ll sharpen your pencil again before expanding.

No one can say how long the divergence between disappointing GDP growth and a rising stock market will last. Either the economy’s pent up demand overcomes Washington’s bureaucracy and grows faster, or we’re in for a correction. Let’s ignore the possibility of change in Washington for the meantime.

The key takeaway is, plan for liquidity, lean toward equity with the balance, and hope Washington will get out of the way. Lyndon Johnson pushed his Great Society programs at the same time as he funded the Vietnam War. We had a miserable decade in the stock market. Obama is pushing social reforms at the same time we try to recover from a credit crisis. Great ideas, bad timing.